Will he stay (or will he go)?

How did it come to be that an entire industry must depend on Howard Stern? When that industry essentially consists of one company — Sirius XM. Now, the same company that placed a $500 million bet that the shock jock would garner new subscriber growth must decide if it will renew his contract by year’s end.

I slightly exaggerate how critical Stern is to satellite radio, but it is true that he is no less a significant asset to Sirius XM now than he was five years ago when the network won his show. Since then, Stern has earned every stripe of condemnation and praise from just about every corner of the media universe that covers the beleaguered satellite radio industry.

Some feel The Howard Stern Show was and still is a terrific deal for Sirius, chiefly because his contract costs pale in comparison to the network’s annual subscriber revenue. Sirius’ $500 million deal with the NFL brings in far less money than Stern’s show, for instance.

Others think Stern is courting potential suitors in an effort to get the greatest offer possible from Sirius XM. Clear Channel is interested, though Stern has previously eschewed the notion of moving back to terrestrial radio since he would be more severely censored.

American Idol evidently wants him too, although satellite industry observers chalk that development up to “hedge fund-supported media” fear mongering. Not to mention the fact that, again, Stern has written off the TV show as a plague on the music industry.

It seems most plausible that Stern would stay put. Even though Sirius XM bears a heavy debt load, it is expected to announce its first positive earnings ever. CEO Mel Karmazin recently revealed the company earned $2.5 billion and saw shares rise by 50 percent in 2009. The company also added 257,000 new subscribers to its rolls in fourth quarter 2009 (totaling 18.8 million subscribers), thanks in part to improved car sales.

Sirius XM may offer a lower contract bid to Stern, as many expect, to keep the show. But, Stern’s still a moneymaker for the network, and Sirius XM is a comfortable censor-free environment for Stern. Odds are good he sticks around a while longer.