Good news? Maybe.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. — Winston Churchill

According to leading economic indicators, we’re pulling out of the recession. Researchers are cautiously optimistic about the signs of recovery.

The US Labor Department also said that the number of people filing for unemployment dropped in June for the first time in 19 months. Although heartening, these figures can be tricky. Some people can be out of work for so long that their benefits have run out and they are no longer eligible. In fact, initial claims still rose, indicating that layoffs are continuing.

So what’s going on? Are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel? Paul Krugman’s recent column is considerably more pessimistic — it’s not just the economy, it’s the environment, and the inability of policymakers to move fast enough to turn the ship around.

While I think things are easing up, I also think there are going to be a few nasty aftershocks even after the recession is officially declared “over” (whenever that may be). With luck, the announcement will serve as a warning, rather than an all clear to go back to our previous grasshopper ways. Maybe we’ll all be a little bit spooked. We still have a long way to go before we recoup our losses, and that’s not even taking into account Bernie Madoff’s victims, but those of us with 401(k)s and IRAs.

Nice to know, though, that things are looking up.