Will Genentech take the Roche bait?

by Anne Law, July 23rd, 2008, 7:00 am

There’s a lot of speculation circulating about whether leading biotechnology firm Genentech will accept pharmaceutical giant Roche’s $43.7 billion takeover bid, the largest pharma/biotech merger price tag in several years.

The offer came as a surprise for Genentech, which has maintained a unique culture despite Roche’s controlling ownership stake. If Roche’s offer is accepted, the pharmaceutical giant says that it wants to keep Genentech independent so as not to squelch its innovative atmosphere. I imagine that Genentech executives and employees are wondering whether this goal is realistic though, especially since Roche has also announced its intention to integrate some US functions to cut costs.

Also at issue is the popular opinion that the offer is undervalued, only giving a 9% premium over Genentech’s stock value. Some analysts and investors are betting that Roche will have to up its offer before Genentech will commit, while others feel that Roche will use its advantage as majority shareholder to keep the price down.

Roche has thus far been satisfied with its controlling interest in Genentech, which has allowed it to reap profits from the division while avoiding management duties. The shift in strategy is less of a surprise, however, when you consider current competitive and consolidation trends in the pharmaceutical/generic/biotech industries, as well as the rise of foreign investments in US assets.

Roche itself has made several acquisitions in its quest to remain in the top ranks of drug companies, especially in the areas of biotechnology and diagnostics. (It also recently bumped up its stake in another majority-owned subsidiary, Japan’s Chugai Pharmaceutical.) Like many other pharma companies, Roche is looking to biotechnology firms to bolster its product offerings in the face of generic competition. Generic firms are also joining forces to get ahead of the game.

Though Roche will probably have to raise the stakes, it’s highly likely that Genentech will eventually end up taking the bait in this situation, if for no other reason than to secure its position in the increasingly challenging marketplace. However, let’s not completely discount that the California company may yet fight for its (partial) freedom with San Francisco flair.